ECB accounts reveal inflation concerns before oil spike

February meeting accounts show ECB officials expected inflation to undershoot targets before oil prices surged. This shift now fuels rate hike speculation.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) was bracing for inflation to drop significantly below its target before the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East sent energy markets into a tailspin, according to meeting accounts released on Thursday. Policymakers had expected price growth to undershoot their goals throughout this year and next, providing a buffer that has now been largely eroded by geopolitical volatility.

The European Central Bank headquarters stands in Frankfurt, Germany, as seen in this file photo from March 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
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