China home prices seen falling 3.5 percent in 2026
A Reuters poll indicates Chinese home prices will likely drop 3.5% this year before edging up in 2027 as the market enters a slower adjustment phase. While property investment and sales remain under pressure, analysts expect policy support and inventory reduction efforts to gradually stabilize the sector.
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Xurve View
China home prices are expected to fall 3.5% this year, a slower decline than the 4.0% drop forecast in March. Prices are projected to rise 0.3% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028 as the sector moves toward a slower adjustment phase. The slower correction could ease default risks, though property investment is still forecast to slump 12.0% this year.
