China Adjusts 2026 Crude Oil Import Quotas for Independent Refiners

China's Ministry of Commerce has issued a second batch of 2026 crude oil import quotas to independent refiners, signaling a shift in how the country manages its crude import allocations. This adjustment means that the first two batches of quotas now account for approximately 70% of each refiner's annual allocation, a notable change from 2025, when the first two batches represented the entire yearly quota. This policy shift has significant implications for global crude oil demand forecasting, given China's status as a major importer.

In late November, the first batch of quotas for 2026 was issued, amounting to approximately 8 million tons, intended for cargoes arriving by the end of 2025. The newly announced second batch, combined with the first, totals around 11 million metric tons, or 220,000 barrels per day, for at least one major independent refiner. This shift in timing and volume distribution requires refiners and global commodity markets to adjust their demand forecasting assumptions for the upcoming year.