Brent Crude Set for Record Monthly Gain as Conflict Grows

Global energy markets are witnessing a historic surge as Brent Crude Oil Futures head toward a record monthly increase. This volatility follows recent military actions by Yemen based Houthi forces, who launched their first strikes against Israel over the weekend. These developments have significantly widened the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran within the Middle East region. Brent Crude Oil Futures rose by $3.09, or 2.74%, reaching $115.66 per barrel. Similarly, WTI Crude Oil Futures climbed $2.92, or 2.93%, to trade at $102.56 per barrel. The monthly surge for Brent has now reached 59%, surpassing the gains recorded during the 1990 Gulf War. This price pressure stems largely from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor that handles approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies. The conflict, which began in late February with strikes on Iranian targets, has now permeated the broader Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea. Analysts from JP Morgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, noted that the geopolitical risk has shifted beyond the Persian Gulf. > The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb — one of the worlds most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows. In response to the maritime blockades, Saudi Arabia has redirected crude exports to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, with volumes reaching 4.658 million barrels per day last week. However, experts suggest that if Yanbu faces disruption, the kingdom may need to utilize the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline in Egypt to reach international markets. Tensions escalated further as infrastructure in Oman was impacted, with reports of damage to the Salalah terminal despite ongoing attempts to initiate ceasefire discussions. While Tehran has accused Washington of preparing for a ground assault, diplomatic efforts continue elsewhere. Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar indicated that discussions in Islamabad have explored potential pathways for a permanent end to the regional hostilities and possible direct negotiations between the American and Iranian governments.