BofA Lifts 2026 Brent Forecast Amid Hormuz Supply Risks
BofA raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $77.50 due to supply risks from the Hormuz closure. Other firms also lifted targets as the regional conflict continues.
Bank of America has increased its 2026 price forecast for Brent crude oil to $77.50 per barrel, up from its previous estimate of $61. The revision follows the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime gateway that handles approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. The bank noted that while prices could settle at $70 if the situation is resolved by April, a prolonged disruption lasting into the second half of the year could drive Brent to an average of $130 per barrel.
The geopolitical landscape remains volatile as the United States has seen its requests for military support to secure the waterway rebuffed by international allies. Meanwhile, Israel has announced plans for at least three more weeks of military operations following overnight strikes against targets in Iran. Regional tensions were further exacerbated by Iranian drone attacks that temporarily halted operations at the Dubai airport and struck an oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.
