Analysts Raise 2026 Oil Price Forecasts on Geopolitical Risk

Analysts raised 2026 Brent forecasts to $63.85 citing geopolitical risks. However, a projected supply surplus and rising EV adoption may limit price upside.

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Analysts have adjusted their oil price projections upward as geopolitical tensions introduce a risk premium, though persistent oversupply remains a significant headwind. A Reuters poll of 34 economists and analysts suggests that Brent Crude Oil is expected to average $63.85 per barrel in 2026, a revision from the previous estimate of $62.02. Meanwhile, crude in the United States is projected to reach an average of $60.38 per barrel, up from the January forecast of $58.72. Despite these increases, the benchmarks have averaged significantly higher year-to-date at $70.48 and $65.01, respectively.

An oil pump jack in operation at the Permian Basin field near Midland, Texas, captured in February 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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